Outcome Determination & Rewards Distribution

Correct Outcome Determination

Determining the correct outcome of a prediction market is a critical process that ensures fairness and accuracy within the Binary & Categorical Predictions. This process occurs during the Validation Stage after the event has occurred and initial results are available.

Outcome Determination Steps

1. Data Collection

   • Once the event has concluded, Oriole Insights collects relevant data and evidence from pre-specified reputable sources to establish the suggested outcome.

   • Pre-Specified Sources - For each Poll, the source(s) from which the correct outcome will be determined are indicated in advance within the Poll's conditions or description. This ensures transparency and lets participants know exactly where the outcome information will be obtained.

   • Examples: Price Data may be sourced from exchanges like Binance or other Tier-1 CEXs. Market Capitalization may be retrieved from platforms like CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap. Announcements and Events such as airdrops, Token Generation Events (TGE), or product launches are verified through the project's official communication channels, including their official website, social media accounts (e.g., Twitter, Telegram), or press releases.

   Verified news outlets, blockchain data, or authoritative financial reports may also be used if specified. By informing participants of the sources in advance, we ensure everyone knows how the correct answer will be determined, promoting fairness and trust in the prediction process.

2. Proposed Outcome

   • Based on the collected data, Oriole Insights proposes one or several possible outcomes for the prediction market.

   • The proposed outcome(s) are visible to eligible users participating as validators.

3. Validation Process

   • Eligible users (Validators), meeting certain criteria (e.g., specific user level or type), can participate in the validation process. Validators review the proposed outcome(s) and the supporting evidence provided. Validators vote to Agree or Disagree with the proposed outcome.

4. Consensus Determination

   • Validators Agree Scenario

     • If the vast majority of validators Agree with the proposed outcome, it is confirmed as the final result. Rewards are then calculated and distributed to validators & to correct predictors.

   • Validators Disagree Scenario

     • If the vast majority of validators Disagree with the proposed outcome, the poll undergoes re-validation. No rewards are distributed to validators during this time.

5. Re-Validation and Administrative Decision

   • Oriole Insights' Oracle team conducts a thorough review to propose another correct outcome.

   • The final decision is based on the most accurate and reliable information.

   • In cases where consensus can't be reached, or if the outcome remains disputed, Oriole Insights may decide to:

     • Extend the Validation Period: Allow more time for additional information to emerge.

     • Cancel the Market: Refund all participants' staked ORI without impacting reputation scores.

6. Finalization

   • Once the correct outcome is determined, the prediction market moves to the Finished Stage. Rewards are calculated and distributed accordingly.

Rewards & Seed Pool Distribution

Rewards for correct predictions come from the ORI pooled by users who made incorrect predictions. Oriole Insights may contribute additional ORI to a Seed Pool to enhance rewards for successful predictors. A separate reward pool for Validators comes from the Oriole Insights treasury.

Rewards Calculation = Stake-Based Rewards (75%) + Reputation-Based Rewards (25%)

• 75% of the reward distribution is based on the amount of ORI the user staked. Users who staked more ORI on correct predictions receive a larger portion of the rewards pool.

• The user's Reputation Score influences 25% of the reward distribution. Higher reputation scores yield a larger share of rewards, incentivizing consistent accuracy.

Market Cancellation

Oriole Insights may cancel a poll under certain conditions to safeguard users' stakes and reputation. In this case, the amount of ORI spent is refundable, and there is no impact on users' reputation scores.