Polls Prediction Market Cycles (Stages)
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Last updated
Last updated
The Polls Prediction Market operates through several distinct stages:
During this stage, the user can see key information:
Name, description, and useful links of the specific Poll
Voting requirements (User Types and Levels) for those eligible to predict the outcome of this Poll,
Voting requirements (User Types and Levels) for validators. Note: if you predict the outcome, you will lose the ability to validate this specific Binary/Categorical Prediction Market.
Determined Seed Pool.
Timing (Date and Time) - when the Poll becomes active for predictions
Users can prepare but cannot predict yet.
During this stage, eligible users have the opportunity to predict and:
View the number of votes and ORI Pool distribution for each of the options, as well as recent votes (when they were made and for which of the options)
Check the limits, choose the outcome to make a prediction, and choose the amount of ORI for this prediction.
After accepting the user's prediction, the summary will be shown. Users may cancel the prediction via the "Cancel" button and be charged a fee.
Predictions are closed during this stage. Users cannot vote while awaiting the event outcome. The Freeze Stage typically begins at a predetermined time before the event occurs â this could be hours or days in advance, depending on the Poll's settings.
This stage ensures fairness by preventing last-minute predictions that could be influenced by insider information or sudden developments just before the event.
For example, if the Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its decision on interest rates on September 15th at 2:00 PM, the Freeze Stage for the related Poll might begin on September 14th at 2:00 PM, closing predictions 24 hours before the announcement.
Note: Some Polls may not have a Freeze Stage. The presence and duration of the Freeze Stage depend on the type of Binary/Categorical Prediction Market and its specific rules.
The event outcome is determined during this stage. Users cannot make new predictions. This period covers the time when the event is actively occurring until the outcome is officially announced.
Continuing the previous example, from September 15th at 2:00 PM, when the Federal Reserve begins its announcement until the official decision on interest rates is released, the Poll is in the In Progress Stage.
This stage allows the event to unfold without any influence from ongoing predictions, ensuring that the outcome reflects the actual event without bias.
During this stage, the correct outcome is suggested; then, the validators must vote on whether they agree OR disagree with the decision. After voting, the validation process continues until a delta is reached. Note: Validation Deltaâthe difference required in validator votes to determine whether an answer is correct or not. This difference can be either agreement or disagreement. When the delta is reached, it signifies a consensus level among validators, leading to either a re-selection of the correct outcome or confirmation of the initially selected outcome.
Users who predict this Poll are waiting for the final result.
The final result is determined, and rewards are distributed. Users can see the results of their prediction, whether successful or not. They can see how many ORIs were won due to a successful prediction. Amount of reputation was earned or lost.
Users can cancel their predictions during the âVotingâ stage of the Binary & Categorical Prediction Markets. This option involves paying a progressive cancellation fee that depends on how close to the end of the "Voting" phase users are. Here's how it works:
Free cancellation within the first 5 minutes after vote cancellation.
Once an event date is added, the cancellation fee starts at 10% of the pooled ORI and increases over time.
The closer you are to an event date, the higher the fee.
On the last day before the event, the cancellation fee is 90% of the pooled ORI.
If an event date changes, the fee is automatically recalculated.
If an event date is set to "TBA", cancellation is free until an event date is defined.
This fee structure is implemented as a safeguard to maintain the voting process's integrity and discourage impulsive or non-committal voting behaviors.
