Reputation Calculation in ROI Prediction Markets

In the Oriole Insights platform, the reputation calculation within the ROI Prediction market is tailored to the specific project. Unlike a fixed reputational change in markets like Up/Down predictions, where a correct or incorrect forecast might uniformly affect reputation by a value such as +/-0.025, the ROI Prediction market introduces a variable parameter. The amount of reputation a user can win or lose in this market varies from project to project. This variability allows the platform to account for different levels of prediction difficulty, potential market impact, and other project-specific factors, making the reputation rewards or penalties more nuanced and tailored to each betting scenario.

Moreover, some markets might have multiple winning outcomes. For example, if the result marginally qualifies for two different ranges, both predictions may be deemed winners, reflecting a fair and flexible approach to unforeseen outcomes.

EXAMPLE

Let’s assume that the reputation parameter is set to 0.5 for a specific prediction market, and the person can make a prediction for no more than 3 options:

For Single Vote & Outcome:

• If a user makes a correct prediction on a single outcome, they receive a 100% increase in the reputation stakes for that specific ROI Prediction bet (e.g., +0.5 to their reputation score).

• Conversely, if their prediction on a single outcome is incorrect, they lose 100% of the reputation at stake for that bet (e.g., -0.5 from their reputation score).

For Multiple Votes & Outcomes:

• Let's assume a user chooses 3 variants of 10 available for the ROI Prediction Pool. 2 of these 3 variants are losing, and 1 is winning. In this case, the user's reputation score decreases by half of the potential Win/Loss Reputation amount for this exact Prediction Pool.

• Let's assume a user chooses 3 variants of 10 available for the ROI Prediction Pool. 2 of these 3 variants are winning, and 1 is losing. In this case, the user's reputation score increases by half of the potential Win/Loss Reputation amount for this exact Prediction Pool.

Important Note: Oriole Insights may cancel a market under certain circumstances, safeguarding users' stakes and reputation. In such cases, invested ORIs are refunded.