ROI & Initial Listing Prediction Markets

Introduction to ROI & Initial Listing Prediction Markets

Cryptocurrency projects raise funds from various sources, such as VCs, funds, individual investors, etc., in return for allocating the project's tokens (coins). This process is known as the Token Sale (Seed/Private/Public Sale) before the token is listed on an exchange. Moreover, some projects can allocate tokens via Retrodrop for free, distributing tokens to early adopters who have actively participated in the beta-testing of the project.

Before a specific token is listed on a centralized or decentralized exchange, it's not publicly tradable, meaning there is no market price. However, tokens can be traded on OTC markets. Also, some exchanges can open derivatives markets where people can trade the token's price without physically having token liquidity on the exchanges. Because of low liquidity on both OTC/derivatives markets and possible market manipulations, a fair/market price for an asset can't be estimated.

Predicting a token's price and future market behavior becomes uncertain, and nobody knows the exact market token’s price on the listing before it’s already listed.

The ROI & Initial Listing Prediction Markets is a new feature on the Oriole Insights platform, created for users to forecast the performance of cryptocurrencies during their initial listing phase. This type of prediction market is beneficial for investors and enthusiasts who seek to analyze and predict the future market value of tokens post-listing, potentially yielding insights into the token's initial success.

Users have several options how to predict the potential success of the token on initial listing using The ROI & Initial Listing Prediction Markets functionality:

  • Users have the opportunity to predict how many times the price of the token will increase compared to the Public Sale Token Price - ROI (how many Xs the token will gain). It's possible to make such predictions only when there is a Public Sale and the Public Token Price is known.

  • Users have the opportunity to predict what would be a token’s price after listing & its initial Market Cap (based on the Initial Circulation Token Supply)

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